Posted on January 28, 2008

Two weeks ago, Brian Carter, local legal counsel for DDR (Developers Diversified Realty Corporation), wrote an opinion piece in the Ukiah Daily Journal asking for a "fair hearing" about his client's proposed project. Decisions about whether to award DDR with a needed zoning change, he argued, should be made "on the basis of objective facts and actual dollars and cents rather than "speculative arguments."

I couldn't agree more with Carter. That's why I am inviting Carter or anyone else from DDR to engage in a debate next Tuesday evening, January 29. (I understand that DDR has had an open invitation to participate in this event since early last October.)

In my view, the community should ask a bunch of hard questions for the DDR proponents. For example:

Is what's good for DDR necessarily good for the economy or future of Ukiah? I don't fault DDR, an Ohio-based developer, for wanting to turn a quick profit. But in its own words, it's "the nation's leading owner, developer and manager of market-dominant community centers" precisely the type of developments that contribute little to the economy and enormously to sprawl.

DDR major clients are nonlocal, big-box businesses, and they've hinted that Mendocino Crossroads will include anchor tenants like Target, CostCo and Kohl's. How can this project possibly benefit the region, given that more than a dozen studies have shown that chain stores produce substantially fewer jobs, earnings, and taxes than comparable local businesses?

But it's not just that other uses of the Masonite site could have better impacts on the community - all future projects are, as Carter says, "speculative." But has DDR really considered the plausible negative impact of DDR's likely plans?

Isn't there a case that retail in Mendocino County is already overbuilt? A careful look at DDR's own studies suggests that it's likely that the Mendocino Crossings project would cut deeply into Ukiah's existing local businesses. Existing big-box development has already hurt Ukiah's downtown, more could exact a final blow.

Sure, Ukiah residents spend some money outside the community, but is it really smart to talk about total retail leakage in the abstract? When the specifics of the leaks are understood, it's clear that DDR's project will probably do little to plug them. About a third of the area's leakage is in spending at "full-service restaurants," and the best way to plug this is through new, local restaurants downtown.

Where are your estimates of damage to overall employment in the county? A 2006 study found that for every new retail job created by Wal-Mart, 1.5 jobs are lost as existing businesses downsize or close. DDR's prediction that its project will generate 700 jobs, therefore, could actually lead to the destruction of many, if not more than, 700 jobs elsewhere in the local economy.

Isn't it "speculative" whether DDR's mall will succeed, even on its own terms? The U.S. retail sector has been overbuilt everywhere, including Mendocino. Malls are shutting down across the country, and the pace will quicken as the economy sinks into an imminent recession.

The bottom line is this: For DDR, a failed mall is a minor write-off. For Ukiah, it's an eyesore, a destroyer of downtown, a contributor to sprawl, a blemish on the rural character most residents are trying to preserve.

Certainly there are at least two sides to this debate, and that's why a number of local community organizations invited both DDR and me to a forum where the public could hear both of them - openly, fairly, comprehensively. I look forward to presenting the skeptic'scase, even if DDR is not ready to present theirs.

I hope that Brian Carter or one of his colleagues reconsiders. When the forum convenes at Ukiah Conference Center at 6 pm on Tuesday there will still be a chair for DDR.

By Michael H. Shuman

Editor's Note: This piece was originally published as "Another Voice: What's the DDR Afraid of?" on January 28, 2008 in the Ukiah Daily Journal (CA) Editorials section, article ID 8099897.)